Post AvA Smallfolk Phase Analysis

Now that they have returned to their meager holdings, their swords forged back into plowshares and the battlefields resown, the time has come to reflect on the Smallfolk AvA phase.  As promised, much of this blog will be dedicated to the smaller of the AvA ranks, but we will start with an overview of the standings and actions.

While a number of familiar names landed at the top of the regional standings, several regions were tightly fought throughout the phase. The North saw an ominous-sounding, three-way battle in which Dark Wings, Dark Words ultimately prevailed over Bloodravens and Black Vipers.  In Westerlands, A Little Fingered was only a few digits short of a triumph over Deadpool. Shagga Likes Axes and Kong”s Landing, and Shagga and Shenanigans engaged in mega-battles in Crownlands and Stormlands respectively.

 

Here are the overall standings for the top twenty Alliances overall across each region.

The breakdown of harmful actions, as always, gives a peek to the drama that unfolded between Alliances...

...while the helpful actions often tell the stories behind the story.

 

Smallfolk on the Rise: VP Growth

In the spirit of the phase, we decided to take a closer look at AvA’s own version of Smallfolk, Tier 1 and Tier 2 Alliances. For the purpose of this blog, we restricted our definitions as  T1 including Alliances with 1-25 phase participants and T2 Alliances having 26-50 phase participants.  

In our post-ava write-ups, we sometimes published the daily VP growth for all Alliances across Westeros. These graphs often highlight only the highest tier Alliances, so we were curious to see what daily VP growth would look like for T1 and T2 Alliances.

Similar to top tier Alliances, the highest placed Alliances in T1 and T2 generally held their VP rankings throughout the phase. Kudos to Dragon Stone Stronghold, who topped the overall VP ranks for Tier 1, and congratulations to Dontos for the Iron Throne who are at the top of Tier 2.

Of course, just as with their larger brethren, a graph of overall VP earned doesn’t tell the story of how that VP was earned. For example, have a look at the total Harmful actions for top T1 Alliances vs the top-ranked Alliances overall.

As you can see, for most of the Alliances listed, the harmful action targets are not fully listed. No surprise there. Top-ranked Alliances naturally gain the most value in targeting each other, but lower tier Alliances can effectively attack the entire range of Alliances ranked above them. Kings of Winter, for example, didn’t attack any of the high-ranking Alliances shown in the table, and must have sent their Sworn Swords elsewhere. Dragon Stone Stronghold, on the other hand, had no issue setting their sights on the largest and highest-ranked of Alliances. Different strategies, both with respectful outcomes.

Deadliest Smallfolk: Killing SS

Now, on to death! In honor of the phase theme, and in a nod to the Superlative in The Reach, our data scientists calculated the highest number of sworn swords killed by Tier 1 and 2 Alliances across all of Westeros.

As the graphics below show, Rogue Three took top spot of the T1 Alliances, while for Tier 2, The Bannermen placed highest. Kind of interesting that in both tiers, the first place Alliance was significantly in front of the Alliance behind them.

Keeping on the theme of killing, we wondered who among the T1 Alliances was the most deadly defender. That is, who of the T1 Alliances killed the greatest number of attacking Sworn Swords in defence of their garrisons. The results surprised us a little.

Relative to other T1 Alliances, Big Mama’s House managed to kill nearly three times as many incoming Sworn Swords as the next deadly defender. Although we haven’t dug into the data, we feel there must be a story lurking in these numbers somewhere. Curious to know what it might be. Until then, might be best to steer clear of Big Mamma.

Smallfolk Gone Wild: Camp Damage

During this phase, camp damage inflicted was tracked for the Superlative in Westerlands. Those who follow such things know that Fookin Prawns achieved -2.7M Damage to win the Superlatives.  What you might not know is that Fookin Prawns is a Tier 1 Alliance.

Out of interest, we expanded the ‘Damage’ measurement to include all of Westeros and re-ran it for T1 and T2 Alliances respectively. Since the actual Superlative requires a minimum of 5 Participants, our data scientists have labelled the number of participants for each Alliance to provide a little context.

For T1 Alliances, even if all Westeros is included, Fookin Prawns would have won the damage Superlative.

For T2 Alliances, meanwhile, Empire of Westeros handedly inflicted the greatest amount of damage per participant, followed by King of Winter and The Bannermen respectively.

Big or small, we want to thank all Alliances who joined in the Smallfolk phase and helped make it the highest-participated AvA so far of 2017.  We're already looking forward to the next phase, of course.  Like the old maps says, here be dragons!